Mid-term skills supply and demand forecast

The project has the goal of developing complementary methods and models to the E3ME forecasting model of Cambridge Econometrics, which has been used for years by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) to forecast skills supply and demand in order to inform the VET (vocational education and training) strategy at the European level. Fondazione contributes to the project through the development of the FGB LM Model as an alternative simulation tool that enables the assessment of an extensive range of policy scenarios.

Specific tasks and services are agreed on a yearly basis at the beginning of every project year.

The prime aim in the first project year is to show the main potentialities of the FGB Model in comparison with E3ME in the field of scenario analysis, as well as to assess the feasibility of the implementation of a multi-country version.

Fondazione’s contribution for the first year can be divided into six main tasks:

• Extension of the single-country open economy FGB Model into a multi-country open economy model
• Construction of macro and microdata series for all countries, consistent with the E3ME database
• Alignment of FGB Model forecasts to the most recent available E3ME projections for Italy and, at the aggregate level, for the EU 28 Member States as a whole
• Development of the capability to produce counterfactual scenarios and analysis of differences with the baseline
• Production of a relevant technical report on feasibility and initial results