Regional labour markets towards 2035, new OVERLAP report
As a partner of the European research project OVERLAP. Overlapping crises (re)shaping the future of regional labour markets, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini contributed to the project's main report, which is now available online.
Funded through the European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion (ESPON) programme, OVERLAP features a unique combination of dynamic microsimulation and macro-modelling to assess labour market trends through to 2035, exploring how overlapping structural transitions – demographic, digital, and green – are shaping the future of regional labour markets across Europe.
By analysing demographic prospects and testing different scenarios for regional labour markets over the coming decade, the report provides projections of how jobs could change across Europe's regions by 2035 (at NUTS-3 level). It explores several scenarios driven by policy choices or unexpected shocks, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for transformation.
The report is the result of a complex scenario modelling exercise, which combines a Europe-wide macro model developed by Prognos (the project lead), with country-level microsimulations developed by the University of Essex, to explore how demographic, green and digital transitions may reshape employment across sectors and territories.
"FGB's role in the study was to ‘translate’ the models into a narrative and discuss it with policy makers and experts in five pilot countries (Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and the UK), so as to validate scenarios and identify recommendations for policy makers, following a participatory and co-creation approach" explains Costanza Pagnini, Head of FGB's Policy Analysis and Evaluation Unit, who contributed to the study on behalf of FGB.
"The innovative strength of this research lies in its detailed regional perspective, opening pathways for further studies to develop and validate new metrics that better capture how labour markets are changing" she concludes.
