Strategic foresight on the impact of labour market imbalances
As outlined in the 2023 Annual work programme, the European labour authority (ELA) is conducting a strategic foresight exercise to explore and construct potential scenarios for the future of labour mobility within the European Union.
In particular, such forward-thinking approach aims at understanding and shaping the evolving dynamics of labour markets across the EU, focusing on the impact of labour market imbalances (such as labour shortages and surpluses) on the European employment services (EURES) by 2030.
In fact, these imbalances represent a complex challenge for employers, workers, jobseekers, as well as for various labour market institutions, including Public employment services (PES), ministries, social partners, and crucially, for EURES itself.
The study aims to deliver a set of so-called "driver files" – i.e., documents defining influence factors (such as migration, digitalisation, social developments, etc.), describing their past developments and making hypotheses on how they might develop in the future.
In this project, the driver files will be related to the topics selected by ELA during workshops with its network of stakeholders and experts.
FGB is collaborating with ELA to analyse the labour market imbalances which currently affect EURES services.
This involves the development of eight driver files to understand which factors are influencing labour demand and supply – an activity which will feed into the following step of the foresight exercise, namely the building of the scenario; the analysis of the elements currently affecting labour mismatches and potential future impacts.
The project leader for FGB is Līga Baltiņa.