The impact of labour market imbalances on EURES services
The study The impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES services by 2030. Strategic foresight summary report, published by the European Labour Authority (ELA), is now available online. As part of this study, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini contributed by producing driver files and scenarios.
In its role as the European Coordination Office of the European network of employment services (EURES), the European Labour Authority (ELA) conducted a strategic foresight activity on the impact of labour shortages and surpluses on EURES by 2030. As part of this exercise, ELA asked its stakeholders to imagine different scenarios to understand how labour market imbalances might evolve by 2030 and their potential impact on EURES services.
Experts identified eight factors ("drivers") as the most influential and least predictable in shaping labour shortages and surpluses in Europe. These include: employment and work aspects of technological advancements; technology as matchmaker; short-term/cyclical economic developments; jobseekers’ preferences; housing market and policy; job quality and working conditions; climate change and greening policies; education and training gaps.
For each of these influence factors, a so-called "driver file" was drafted by Fondazione Brodolini, providing a definition of the factor, an overview of its developments over time (including a future outlook), as well as hypotheses on how this driver might develop by 2030. The research work of experts on these deliverables was led by Liga Baltina, Head of FGB's Labour Market and Skills Research Unit.
By combining these driver files and related hypotheses about the evolution of each factor, ELA's stakeholders developed nine scenarios illustrating possible futures, spanning the full spectrum of potential economic and labour market developments by 2030 – from full recovery and growth, through economic and labour market stability, to continued instability and ongoing crises.
FGB further worked on these scenario outlines, and drafted individual future scenario files. As a result, the expected labour shortages and surpluses by 2030 differ across the nine scenarios. "Decision-makers are encouraged to draw inspiration from these scenarios when designing and planning their activities, considering what actions could help achieve a positive future while mitigating negative outcomes" comments Giancarlo Dente, Coordinator of FGB's Policy Evaluation & Human Capital Area.
